Monday, September 30, 2013

How Currency Works

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Whether we pull out paper bills or swipe a credit card, most of the transactions we engage in daily use currency. Indeed, money is the lifeblood of economies around the world.

To understand why civilized societies have used currency throughout history, it's useful to compare it to the alternative. Imagine you make shoes for a living and need to buy bread to feed your family. You approach the baker and offer a pair of shoes for a specific number of loaves. But as it turns out, he doesn't need shoes at the moment. You're out of luck unless you can find another baker - one who happens to be short on footwear - nearby. Money alleviates this problem. It provides a universal store of value that can be readily used by other members of society. That same baker might need a table instead of shoes. By accepting currency, he can sell his goods and have a convenient way to pay the furniture maker.

In general, transactions can happen at a much quicker pace because sellers have an easier time finding a buyer with whom they want to do business.

There are other important benefits of money, too. The relatively small size of coins and dollar bills makes them relatively simple to transport. Consider a corn grower who would have to load a cart full of food every time he needed to buy something.

Additionally, coins and paper have the advantage of lasting a long time, which is something that can't be said for all commodities. A farmer who relies on direct trade, for example, may only have a few weeks before his assets spoil. With money, she can accumulate and store her wealth.

Various Forms

Today, it's natural to associate currency with coins or paper notes. However, money has taken a number of different forms throughout history. In many early societies, certain commodities became a standard method of payment. Around the 16th century, for example, the Aztecs often used cocoa beans instead of trading goods directly. However, commodities have clear drawbacks in this regard. Depending on their size, they can be hard to carry around from place to place. And in many cases, they have a limited shelf life.

These are some of the reasons why minted currency was an important innovation. As far back as 2500 BC, Egyptians created metal rings that they used as money, and actual coins have been around since at least 700 BC, when they were used by a society in modern-day Turkey. Paper money didn't come about until the Tang Dynasty in China, which lasted from 618-907 AD.

More recently, technology has enabled an entirely different form of payment: electronic currency. Using a telegraph network, Western Union (NYSE:WU) completed the first electronic money transfer way back in 1871. With the advent of mainframe computers, it became possible for banks to debit or credit each others' accounts without the hassle of moving large sums of cash.

Types of Currency

So, what exactly gives our modern forms of currency – whether it's an American dollar or a Japanese yen – value? Unlike early coins made of precious metals, most of what's minted today doesn't have much intrinsic value. However, it retains its worth for one of two reasons.

In the case of "representative money," each coin or note can be exchanged for a fixed amount of a commodity. The dollar fell into this category in the years following World War II, when central banks around the world could pay the U.S. government $35 for an ounce of gold.

However, worries about a potential run on America's gold supply led President Nixon to cancel this agreement with countries around the world. By leaving the gold standard, the dollar became what's referred to as "fiat money." In other words, it holds value simply because people have faith that other parties will accept it.

Today, most of the major currencies around the world – including the euro, British pound and yen – fall into this category.

Exchange-Rate Policies

Because of the global nature of trade, parties often need to acquire foreign currencies as well. Governments have two basic policy choices when it comes to managing this process. The first is to offer a fixed exchange rate.

Here, the government pegs its own currency to one of the major world currencies, such as the American dollar or the euro, and sets a firm exchange rate between the two denominations. To preserve the local exchange rate, the nation's central bank either buys or sells the currency to which it is pegged.

The main goal of a fixed exchange rate is to create a sense of stability, especially when a nation's financial markets are less sophisticated than those in other parts of the world. Investors gain confidence by knowing the exact amount of the pegged currency they can acquire, if they so desire.

However, fixed exchange rates have also played a part in numerous currency crises in recent history. This can happen, for instance, when the purchase of local currency by the central bank leads to its overvaluation.

The alternative to this system is letting the currency float. Instead of pre-determining the price of a foreign currency, the market dictates what the cost will be. The United States is just one of the major economies that uses a floating exchange rate.

In a floating system, the rules of supply and demand govern a foreign currency's price. Therefore, an increase in the amount of money will make the denomination cheaper for foreign investors. And an increase in demand will strengthen the currency – that is, make it more expensive.

While a "strong" currency has positive connotations, there are drawbacks. Suppose that the dollar gained value against the yen. Suddenly, Japanese businesses would have to pay more to acquire American-made goods, likely passing their costs on to consumers. This makes U.S. products less competitive in overseas markets.

The Impact of Inflation

Most of the major economies around the world now use fiat currencies. Since they're not linked to a physical asset, governments have the freedom to print additional money in times of financial trouble. While this provides greater flexibility to address challenges, it also creates the opportunity to overspend.

The biggest hazard of printing too much money is hyperinflation. With more of the currency in circulation, each unit becomes worth less. While modest amounts of inflation are relatively harmless, uncontrolled devaluation can dramatically erode the purchasing power of consumers.

If inflation reaches 5 percent annually, each individual's savings – assuming it doesn't accrue substantial interest – is worth 5 percent less than it was the previous year. Naturally, it becomes harder to maintain the same standard of living.

For this reason, central banks in developed countries usually try to keep inflation under control by indirectly taking money out of circulation when the currency loses too much value.

The Bottom Line

Regardless of the form it takes, all money has the same basic goals. It helps encourage economic activity by increasing the market for various goods. And it enables consumers to store wealth and therefore address long-term needs.

Sunday, September 29, 2013

ADM Offsetting Weak Volume With Strong Ethanol

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With ethanol margins improving in the second quarter and investors increasingly transitioning from the old (poor) crop to the new (good) crop, Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM) has caught investor attention again, and the stock is both near a 52-week high and up almost 50% over the past year. I do believe that the 2013 U.S. crop harvest will be good for ADM's 2014 handling, milling, and crushing operations, and I do believe ethanol is here to stay. That said, this is still fundamentally a volatile low-margin business and even with the opportunities added with GrainCorp, I would be careful about chasing the shares.

Good Performance In A Challenging Environment
Probably the best news for ADM going into this quarter was that expectations really weren't that demanding. Even so, the company delivered a small (two-cent) beat versus the average EPS estimate due to better execution within its operations.

Revenue declined 1% this quarter (about 2% below expectations), with ag services down 6% and oilseed processing down 3%. With oilseed processing volume down 10% (in line with an overall 10% or so decline in U.S. crush volumes), that's not such a bad outcome. Corn processing revenue jumped 29%, helped in large part by the ethanol business.

While the gross margin was flat with the year-ago level, ADM's segment profits rose 19% from the year-ago level. While oilseed profits were down 3% (as better crushing margins were offset by weaker cocoa) and ag services profits were down about one-third on weaker volumes, corn profits more than tripled. Within corn, better results in starches and sweeteners were almost completely offset by hedges, with radically improved ethanol margins providing all of the upside.

SEE: A Look At Corporate Profit Margins

Not Much To Do In Oilseeds Or Ag Services But Wait
There is a pretty simple explanation as to why ADM's crush volumes and ag services revenues were down this quarter – last year's lousy crop just hasn't left much to process. To that end, this is also where ADM's geographical exposure becomes an issue – ADM has a modest presence in Latin America compared to Bunge (NYSE:BG) and can't take as much advantage of Argentine and Brazilian oilseed crops produced by companies like Cresud (Nasdaq: CRESY) and Adecoagro (Nasdaq:AGRO).

Although the 2013 U.S. crop is looking strong in terms of yield, it's hardly a done deal yet. In any case, investors are already transitioning to the next year's outlook where a surge of crop inventory should boost the crush and ag services operations.

Ethanol Boosting Corn, But Don't Count On It
While ADM and Ingredion (Nasdaq:INGR) are seeing pressures in the sweeteners and starches business from last year's crop (ADM's corn processing volume declined 1% this quarter), the bigger issue for ADM is the never-ending volatility in the ethanol industry.

SEE: The Buzz Around Ethanol

ADM is the largest ethanol producer in the U.S. at about 1.75 billion gallons or roughly 12% of U.S. production. All told, the top five producers (which includes Valero (NYSE:VLO)) account for about 40% of capacity, but it's not as though this scale offers much assurance of stability. Inventories are low, but Brazilian imports are cost-effective and the blend wall could start pressuring prices. Not unlike what happens in the conventional gasoline refining business, ethanol prices generally follow corn prices, but not in lockstep and there's really no way to know where margins are going more than a quarter or two from here.

The Bottom Line
The GrainCorp acquisition will improve ADM's position in Asia, but there's still room for the company to increase its global presence (in Asia, Latin America, and Africa). These opportunities have to be set against the cost of capital and so on, but the point stands that ADM still has room to grow its business. Still, this is a volatile business with razor-thin margins and cash flow generation, and that is unlikely to change.
With that in mind, I'm not in any hurry to chase ADM shares today. I like ADM just fine, but I think the stock is fairly-priced with respect to discounted cash flow and ROE/PBV. I'm happy to own ADM when Wall Street doesn't like it, but with the sentiment (and stock performance) having turned around, I think there are better opportunities elsewhere.

Disclosure: At the time of writing, the author did not own shares of any company mentioned in this article.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Hot Gold Stocks To Watch For 2014

Introduction

In this article I'll discuss Luna Gold (LGCUF.PK), a gold producer owning the Aurizona mine in Brazil where it expects to produce approximately 100,000 ounces of gold this year. Luna Gold seems to offer an attractive risk/reward ratio, despite the current price of gold and its streaming agreement with Sandstorm Gold.

I'll first give a brief general overview, moving over to the company's production profile and its expected growth, which will result in my investment thesis at the end of this article. This article won't contain a lot of links, there are no hyperlinks available for Luna's press releases, but you can find the link to all press releases here.

I think Luna Gold is a decent investment to have exposure to the gold price as the company is already in production and is currently installing upgrades to move to an annual output of 135,000 ounces per year (112,000 net to Luna). This will generate a cash flow of approximately $60M per annum which should be sufficient for Luna Gold to continue to increase its output even further. This cash flow will obviously also be used to fund further exploration work on its land package containing 220,000 hectares immediately surrounding the Aurizona mine.

Hot Gold Stocks To Watch For 2014: Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited(AEM)

Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in Canada, Finland, and Mexico. The company primarily explores for gold, as well as silver, copper, zinc, and lead. Its flagship property includes the LaRonde mine located in the southern portion of the Abitibi volcanic belt, Canada. The company was founded in 1953 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By vaninaegea]

    In august, the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) published the mid-year review for the agricultural sector. Their findings point to a slowdown for the industry, highlighting a 9.5% decline on exports through the first half of 2013. Also, late soybean planting in the USA is expected to compound the industry�� slowdown. So, what are the prospects for AGCO (AGCO), CNH Global (CNH), and Deere & Co. (DE) under such conditions?

  • [By Holly LaFon]

    He increased his holdings in gold companies in the fourth quarter accordingly. Gold stocks he found attractive in the fourth quarter are: Novagold Resources (NG), Randgold Resources (GOLD), Iamgold Corp. (IAG), Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), Agnico Eagle (AEM) and International Tower Hill (THM).

Hot Gold Stocks To Watch For 2014: Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.(TC)

Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in mining, milling, processing, and marketing molybdenum products in the United States and Canada. The company?s principal properties include the Thompson Creek Mine and mill in Idaho; a metallurgical roasting facility in Langeloth, Pennsylvania; and a joint venture interest in the Endako Mine, mill, and roasting facility in British Columbia. It also holds interests in development projects comprising the Davidson molybdenum property and the Berg copper-molybdenum-silver property located in northern British Columbia; the Howard?s Pass property, a lead and zinc project situated in the Yukon territory-northwest territories border; and the Maze Lake property, a gold project located in the Kivalliq district of Nunavut. The company produces molybdenum products, primarily molybdic oxide and ferromolybdenum, as well as soluble technical oxide, pure molybdenum tri-oxide, and high purity molybdenum disulfide. As o f December 31, 2010, its consolidated recoverable proven and probable ore reserves totaled 462.2 million pounds of contained molybdenum in the Thompson Creek Mine and the Endako Mine. The company was formerly known as Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. and changed its name to Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. in May 2007. Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. is based in Denver, Colorado.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Thompson Creek Metals Co. Inc. (NYSE: TC) was at 54% discount to its book value of $8.30 per share at the time, and the stock price of $3.90 is up from $3.03 Deutsche Bank’s team nailed upside of more than 28% here. Its price target was $4 at the time versus a consensus target of $4.50 at the time. The 52-week range here is $2.42 to $4.55, but we would point out that the consensus price target is $3.93.

10 Best Medical Stocks To Buy Right Now: Golden Star Resources Ltd(GSS)

Golden Star Resources Ltd., a gold mining and exploration company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of gold properties. It owns and operates the Bogoso/Prestea gold mining and processing operation that covers approximately 40 kilometers of strike along the southwest-trending Ashanti gold district in western Ghana; and the Wassa open-pit gold mine located to the east of Bogoso/Prestea in southwest Ghana. The company also has an 81% interest in the Prestea underground gold mine located in Ghana. In addition, it holds interests in various gold exploration projects in Ghana, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Cote d?Ivoire, as well as holds and manages exploration properties in Brazil in South America. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Littleton, Colorado.

Hot Gold Stocks To Watch For 2014: Goldcorp Incorporated(GG)

Goldcorp Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of precious metal properties in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Central and South America. It produces and sells gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Gold miners, however, are not participating in the rally today. Newmont Mining (NEM) has dropped 1.8% to $32.62, Goldcorp (GG) has gained 0.1% to $31.30 and Barrick Gold (ABX) has fallen 1.6% to $19.50. The Market Vectors Goldminers ETF (GDX) has fallen 1.1% to $30.09.

Hot Gold Stocks To Watch For 2014: First Majestic Silver Corp.(AG)

First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the production, development, exploration, and acquisition of mineral properties with a focus on silver in Mexico. The company owns interests in La Encantada Silver Mine comprising 4,076 hectares of mining rights and 1,343 hectares of surface land located in Coahuila; La Parrilla Silver Mine consisting of mining concessions covering an area of 69,867 hectares; and San Martin Silver Mine comprising approximately 7,841 hectares of mineral rights and approximately 1,300 hectares of surface land rights located in Jalisco. It also holds interests in Del Toro Silver Mine consisting of 393 contiguous hectares of mining claims and an additional 129 hectares of surface rights located in Zacatecas; Real de Catorce Silver Project comprising 22 mining concessions covering 6,327 hectares located in San Luis Potosi state; and Jalisco Group of Properties consisting of mining claims totalling 5,240 hectares located in Jalisco. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Hot Gold Stocks To Watch For 2014: Newmont Mining Corporation(Holding Company)

Newmont Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and production of gold and copper properties. The company?s assets or operations are located in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand, and Mexico. As of December 31, 2009, it had proven and probable gold reserves of approximately 93.5 million equity ounces and an aggregate land position of approximately 27,500 square miles. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

Hot Gold Stocks To Watch For 2014: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(The)

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. Its Investment Banking segment offers financial advisory, including advisory assignments with respect to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense, risk management, restructurings, and spin-offs; and underwriting securities, loans and other financial instruments, and derivative transactions. The company?s Institutional Client Services segment provides client execution activities, such as fixed income, currency, and commodities client execution related to making markets in interest rate products, credit products, mortgages, currencies, and commodities; and equities related to making markets in equity products, as well as commissions and fees from executing and clearing institutional client transactions on stock, options, and fu tures exchanges. This segment also engages in the securities services business providing financing, securities lending, and other prime brokerage services to institutional clients, including hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, and foundations. Its Investing and Lending segment invests in debt securities, loans, public and private equity securities, real estate, consolidated investment entities, and power generation facilities. This segment also involves in the origination of loans to provide financing to clients. The company?s Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment products to institutional and individual clients. This segment also offers wealth advisory services, including portfolio management and financial counseling, and brokerage and other transaction services to high-net-worth individuals and families. In addition, it provides global investment research services. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Hot Gold Stocks To Watch For 2014: Claude Resources Inc.(CGR)

Claude Resources Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metal properties, as well as production and marketing of minerals in Canada. It primarily explores for gold in northern Saskatchewan and northwestern Ontario. The company holds interests in the Seabee gold mine located at Laonil Lake, northern Saskatchewan; and the Madsen property that consists of 6 contiguous claim blocks totaling approximately 10,000 acres, located in the Red Lake Mining District of northwestern Ontario. It also holds interest in the Amisk Gold project, which covers an area of 13,800 hectares in the province of Saskatchewan. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Saskatoon, Canada.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Attorney general meets with JPMorgan’s Dimon

WASHINGTON — JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon met Thursday with Attorney General Eric Holder about an investigation into the company's handling of mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the recession.

Holder declined to characterize the discussions, but a government official familiar with ongoing negotiations said an $11 billion national settlement is under review to resolve claims against JPMorgan.

"I did meet with representatives of JPMorgan," the attorney general said during a news conference being held on another topic.

"We have matters that are under investigation. I expect to be making further announcements in the coming weeks, the coming months," Holder said. His comment was a general reference to probes the Justice Department has been carrying out for several years involving some of the nation's largest financial institutions, including JPMorgan.

Before and after the meeting with Holder, Dimon declined to answer when asked about the state of the discussions.

The Department of Justice is taking the lead on the proposed $11 billion deal, which would include $7 billion in cash and $4 billion in consumer relief, said the government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because a settlement hasn't been reached and the official wasn't authorized to discuss it publicly.

The mortgage-backed securities lost value after a bubble in the housing market burst and helped spur the financial crisis.

In January 2012, a task force of federal and state law enforcement officials was established to pursue wrongdoing with regard to mortgage securities.

In other cases, the Justice Department last month accused Bank of America Corp. of civil fraud in failing to disclose risks and misleading investors in its sale of $850 million in mortgage bonds in 2008. The Securities and Exchange Commission filed a related lawsuit. The government estimates that investors lost more than $100 million on the deal. Bank of America is disputing the allegations.

Last w! eek, JPMorgan agreed to pay $920 million and admitted that it failed to oversee trading that led to a $6 billion loss last year. That combined amount, in settlements with three U.S. regulators and a British one, is one of the largest fines ever levied against a financial institution.

JPMorgan came through the financial crisis in better shape than most of its rivals, and CEO Dimon had charmed lawmakers and commanded the attention of regulators in Washington.

A number of big banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, previously have been accused of abuses in sales of securities linked to mortgages in the run-up to the crisis. Together they have paid hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties to settle civil charges brought by the SEC, which accused them of deceiving investors about the quality of the bonds they sold.

JPMorgan settled SEC charges in June 2011 by agreeing to pay $153.6 million and reached another such agreement for $296.9 million in November.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

5 Toxic Stocks You Should Sell

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Don't be fooled by last week's bounce -- some stocks are still looking toxic right now.

Despite a big bounce last Wednesday, the S&P 500 is actually down 0.14% since the Fed announced that the taper caper was off. If the end to QE was really priced into the market, as so many said, then stocks sure aren't showing it. While the broad market still looks bullish overall, owning weak individual names is still a big liability in this market.

That's why we're taking a closer look at five "toxic" stocks you should sell today. Now. To be fair, the companies I'm talking about today aren't exactly "junk."

By that, I mean they're not next up in line at bankruptcy court. But that's frankly irrelevant; from a technical analysis standpoint, they're some of the worst positioned names out there right now. For that reason, fundamental investors need to decide how long they're willing to take the pain if they want to hold onto these firms this summer. And for investors looking to buy one of these positions, it makes sense to wait for more favorable technical conditions (and a lower share price) before piling in.

For the unfamiliar, technical analysis is a way for investors to quantify qualitative factors, such as investor psychology, based on a stock's price action and trends. Once the domain of cloistered trading teams on Wall Street, technicals can help top traders make consistently profitable trades and can aid fundamental investors in better planning their stock execution.

So without further ado, let's take a look at five toxic stocks you should be unloading.

Campus Crest Communities

2013 is panning out to be a rough year for Campus Crest Communities (CCG) -- shares of the small-cap student housing REIT have slid 12.7% since the calendar flipped over to January. While that sounds bad enough as it is, it's actually 31% underperformance vs. the S&P 500. And a quick glance at the chart makes it pretty clear to see why.

CCG is stuck in a textbook downtrend right now, bouncing between trendline resisatnce to the upside and a parallel support level below. You don't have to be an expert technical analyst to figure out where CCG's high probability price action is from here; it's down. Trendline resistance has acted as a ceiling for shares on the last four tests in 2013 – and with shares hitting their head on that resistance level this week, now's the optimal time to sell (or short) this REIT.

If you're looking for an opportunity to buy CCG, you could be in for a long wait. But the 50-day moving average has been a pretty good proxy for resistance since the start of the summer. I'd recommend waiting for that line to get broken before even thinking about doing anything but selling this stock. Until then, it's toxic.

Nissan Motor

Nissan Motors (NSANY) has fared somewhat better this year -- at least the Japanese automaker is up year-to-date. But Nissan has still significantly underperformed the S&P since the start of the year -- and it's underperformed Japan's Nikkei 225 index by a much larger margin.

Now Nissan looks likely to drop. Here's why.

Nissan is currently forming a descending triangle pattern, a bearish setup that's formed by downtrending resistance above shares and horizontal support to the downside at $20. Basically, as Nissan bounces in between those two technical levels, it's getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakdown below that $20 support line. When that happens, look out below.

The setup in Nissan isn't exactly textbook. This stock spent the preceding months before the descending triangle pattern consolidating sideways, rather than slipping lower. But that doesn't change the trading implications of Nissan right now. If shares can't catch a bid at $20, it's time to sell.

L Brands

Retail stocks have turned out some strong performance so far this year, and L Brands (LTD) has been no exception -- the $17 billion specialty retail name is up more than 26% since the calendar flipped over to January. But that's all in the past. Now, LTD looks "toppy."

L Brands is currently forming a double top, a price setup that's formed by two swing highs that peak at the same level. Those two tops happened in early August and then again in the middle of this month. A move through $56 is the signal that it's time to be a seller in LTD.

Whenever you're looking at any technical price pattern, it's critical to think in terms of those buyers and sellers. Double tops, triangles, and other pattern names are a good quick way to explain what's going on in a stock, but they're not the reason it's tradable. Instead, it all comes down to supply and demand for shares.

Top 10 Biotech Companies To Own For 2014

That support level at $75 is a price where there had been an excess of demand of shares; in other words, it's a place where buyers were more eager to step in and buy shares at a lower price than sellers were to sell. That's what makes a breakdown below $75 so significant -- the move would indicate that sellers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess demand above that price level. That's why it makes sense to wait for that indication before you sell.

JPMorgan Chase

Last up is JPMorgan Chase (JPM), a stock that's showing traders a textbook reversal pattern right now. Financial sector stocks have benefitted in a big way from this rally all the way up. After all, in many ways, they're a lot like a leveraged bet on stocks. But a head and shoulders top pattern is decoupling JPM's price action from that of the broad market this month.

The head and shoulders pattern is a bearish reversal setup that indicates exhaustion among buyers. It's formed by two swing highs that top out around the same level (the shoulders), separated by a bigger peak called the head; the sell signal comes on the breakdown below the pattern's "neckline" level, which is right above $50 at the moment for JPM. That's significant for a couple of reasons: It's a round number that's sure to get more attention from investors, and it's a price that acted as resistance on the way up back in March.

If you think that the head and shoulders is too popular to be worth trading, the research suggests otherwise: a recent academic study conducted by the Federal Reserve Board of New York found that the results of 10,000 computer-simulated head-and-shoulders trades resulted in "profits [that] would have been both statistically and economically significant." If you decide to short JPM on a move below $50, I'd still recommend keeping a protective stop at $54.

To see this week's trades in action, check out the Technical Setups for the Week portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Top Cheap Companies To Buy Right Now

For all the efforts to regulate banks since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed, stock investors have no more faith in U.S. financial institutions now than they did in early 2008, relative to the rest of the market.

While the Standard & Poor�� 500 Index trades at a level that�� 16.2 times reported operating earnings, up 11 percent from this time last year, banks, brokers and insurers are at 13.2 times profits, the cheapest among 10 American industries, according to data on average valuations this month compiled by Bloomberg. Even after financial shares tripled in the four-year bull market, the gap between their valuations and the S&P 500 is as wide as in early 2008.

Tighter regulation and reduced risks have failed to restore confidence that bank profits will be worth paying more for, even as analysts project earnings at financial firms will expand three times more than the S&P 500 this year. Bulls say low valuations mean there�� room for financial shares to beat the benchmark equity index as the economy accelerates. Bears say new rules will prevent American banks from returning to their record share-price highs.

Top Cheap Companies To Buy Right Now: Horizon Lines Inc.(HRZ)

Horizon Lines, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides container shipping and integrated logistics services. It ships a range of consumer and industrial items, such as refrigerated and non-refrigerated foodstuffs, household goods, auto parts, building materials, and other materials used in manufacturing. The company offers container shipping services to ports within the continental United States, Puerto Rico, Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Micronesia. Its integrated logistics services comprise rail, truck brokerage, warehousing, distribution, expedited logistics, and non-vessel operating common carrier operations. Horizon Lines, Inc. also offers terminal services. The company operates terminals in Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico; contracts for terminal services in seven ports in the continental United States; and the ports in Guam, Yantian, and Xiamen, China, as well as Kaohsiung, Taiwan. In addition, it offers inland transportation services. As of Dec ember 20, 2009, the company owned or leased approximately 20 vessels and 18,500 cargo containers. Horizon Lines, Inc. serves consumer and industrial products companies, as well as various agencies of the U.S. government, including the Department of Defense and the U.S. Postal Service. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Top Cheap Companies To Buy Right Now: Whole Foods Market Inc.(WFM)

Whole Foods Market, Inc. engages in the ownership and operation of natural and organic food supermarkets. The company offers produce, seafood, grocery, meat and poultry, bakery, prepared foods and catering, coffee and tea, nutritional supplements, and vitamins. It also provides specialty products, such as beer, wine, and cheese; body care and educational products, such as books; and floral, pet, and household products. As of February 9, 2011, the company operated 302 stores in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Whole Foods Market, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Hot Growth Stocks To Watch For 2014: Ford Motor Credit Company(F)

Ford Motor Company primarily develops, manufactures, distributes, and services vehicles and parts worldwide. It operates in two sectors, Automotive and Financial Services. The Automotive sector offers vehicles primarily under the Ford and Lincoln brand names. This sector markets cars, trucks, and parts through retail dealers in North America, and through distributors and dealers outside of North America. It also sells cars and trucks to dealers for sale to fleet customers, including daily rental car companies, commercial fleet customers, leasing companies, and governments. In addition, this sector provides retail customers with a range of after-sale vehicle services and products in the areas, such as maintenance and light repair, heavy repair, collision repair, vehicle accessories, and extended service contracts under the Ford Service, Lincoln Service, Ford Custom Accessories, Ford Extended Service Plan, and Motorcraft brand names. The Financial Services sector offers vari ous automotive financing products to and through automotive dealers. It offers retail financing, which includes retail installment contracts for new and used vehicles; direct financing leases; wholesale financing products that comprise loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; loans to dealers to finance working capital, purchase real estate dealership, and/or make improvements to dealership facilities; and other financing products, as well as provides insurance services. Ford Motor Company was founded in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Daniela Pylypczak]

    Ford Motor Company (F) announced on Wednesday the addition of two new board members.

    The automaker named James P. Hackett and John C. Lechleiter as the newest members of the company’s board of directors. Hackett’s new role will begin immediately, while Lechlieter will officially join on October 1, 2013.

    Hackett is currently the CEO of Steelcase, Inc–a furniture maker–and also serves on the board of Fifth Third Bancorp, the National Center for Arts and Technology, and the��Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy and Life Sciences Institute at University of Michigan. Lechlieter is the President and CEO of Eli Lilly and Company, one of the largest pharmaceutical firms in the world, and also serves on the board of Nike, Inc, United Way�Worldwide, Xavier University, the Central Indiana Corporate Partnership and the Life Sciences Foundation.

    Ford shares slipped 0.11% during Wednesday’s trading session. Year-to-date, the stock is up 32.95%.

  • [By Shauna O'Brien]

    On Wednesday, Citigroup reported that it has raised estimates on Ford Motor Company (F).

    The firm has boosted its estimates on Ford due to its Asia Pacific share gains. Citigroup currently has a a $20 price target on Ford, suggesting a 13% upside from the stock’s current price of $17.44.

    Ford shares were down 8 cents, or 0.46%, during pre-market trading Wednesday. The stock is up 35% YTD.

Top Cheap Companies To Buy Right Now: MEDIWARE Information Systems Inc.(MEDW)

Mediware Information Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, and marketing of software solutions targeting specific processes within healthcare institutions. The company offers software systems consisting of company's proprietary application software, and third-party licensed software and hardware. It licenses, implements, and supports clinical and performance management, blood donor, and blood and biologic management products in the United States; and medication management solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and South Africa. The company?s blood and biologics management solutions include HCLL Transfusion and HCLL Donor, which address blood donor recruitment, blood processing, and transfusion activities for hospitals and medical centers; BloodSafe suite of hardware and software that enable healthcare facilities to store, monitor, distribute, and track blood products; LifeTrak software for blood centers; a nd BiologiCare, a bone, tissue, and cellular product tracking software. Its medication management products comprise WORx, a pharmacy information system to manage inpatient and outpatient pharmacy operations; MediCOE, a physician order entry module; MediMAR, a nurse point-of-care administration and bedside documentation module; MediREC, which assists in achieving compliance with a Joint Commission mandate; and pharmacy management and electronic prescribing systems. The company?s performance management products include InSight software that tracks performance metrics to assist healthcare managers to manage performance. It also provides software installation and maintenance services, as well as billing and collection services to home infusion and home/durable medical equipment markets. The company markets its products primarily through its direct sales force. Mediware Information Systems, Inc. was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Lenexa, Kansas.

Top Cheap Companies To Buy Right Now: USG Corporation(USG)

USG Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and distribution of building materials worldwide. The company offers gypsum and related products, including gypsum wallboard, joint compounds used for finishing wallboard joints, cement boards, glass mat sheathing, gypsum fiber panels, poured gypsum underlayments, ultra light panels, and various construction plaster products. Its gypsum products are used in various building applications to finish the interior walls, ceilings, and floors in residential, commercial, and institutional constructions, and repair and remodel constructions. The company also produces gypsum-based products for agricultural and industrial customers to use in various applications, including soil conditioning, road repair, fireproofing, and ceramics. In addition, it manufactures ceiling grid and acoustical ceiling tile for electrical and mechanical systems, and air distribution and maintenance applications. USG Corporation distribut es its gypsum products through specialty wallboard distributors, building materials dealers, home improvement centers and other retailers, contractors, and a network of distributors. Further, it distributes other manufacturers? gypsum wallboard, joint compound and other gypsum products, as well as drywall metal, insulation, and roofing products and accessories. The company sells its products under SHEETROCK, DUROCK, FIBEROCK, SECUROCK, LEVELROCK, RED TOP, IMPERIAL, DIAMOND, SUPREMO, AURATONE, ACOUSTONE, DONN, DX, FINELINE, CENTRICITEE, CURVATURA, and COMPASSO brands. The company was founded in 1901 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Top Cheap Companies To Buy Right Now: Majesco Entertainment Company(COOL)

Majesco Entertainment Company develops and markets video game products primarily for family oriented mass-market consumers. The company publishes video games for various interactive entertainment hardware platforms, including Nintendo?s DS, DSi, and Wii; Sony?s PlayStation 3 and PlayStation Portable; Microsoft?s Xbox 360; and personal computers. It also publishes games for various digital platforms consisting of mobile platforms comprising iPhone, iPad, and iPod Touch, as well as online platforms, including Facebook. The company sells its products primarily to retail chains, specialty retail stores, video game rental outlets, and distributors. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Edison, New Jersey.

Top Cheap Companies To Buy Right Now: Express-1 Expedited Solutions Inc.(XPO)

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides third-party logistics services using a network of relationships with ground, sea, and air carriers in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates in three segments: Express-1, Concert Group Logistics, and Bounce Logistics. The Express-1 segment offers ground expedited surface transportation services for freight. It operates a fleet ranging from cargo vans to semi tractor trailer units. The Concert Group Logistics segment provides domestic and international freight forwarding services through a network of independently owned stations. Its domestic freight forwarding services include air charter, expedites, and time sensitive services, as well as cost sensitive services comprising deferred delivery, less than truckload, and full truck load services; and international freight forwarding services consist of on-board courier and air charters, time sensitive services, less-than-container and full-container-loads, and vessel charters. This segm ent also offers documentation on international shipments, customs clearance and banking, trade show shipment management, time definite and customized product distributions, reverse logistics and on site asset recovery projects, installation coordination, freight optimization, and diversity compliance support services. The Bounce Logistics segment provides premium freight brokerage services for truckload shipments. The company serves approximately 4,000 retail, commercial, manufacturing, and industrial customers through 6 U.S. operations centers and 22 agent locations. It offers its services to the automotive manufacturing, automotive components and supplies, commercial printing, durable goods manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, food and consumer products, and high tech sectors. The company was formerly known as Express-1 Expedited Solutions, Inc. and changed its name to XPO Logistics, Inc. in September 2011. XPO Logistics, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is based in Buchanan, Michi gan.

Top Cheap Companies To Buy Right Now: Oracle Corporation(ORCL)

Oracle Corporation, an enterprise software company, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and services database and middleware software, applications software, and hardware systems worldwide. It licenses of database and middleware software, including database management software, application server software, service-oriented architecture and business process management software, data integration software, business intelligence software, identity and access management software, content management software, portals and user interaction software, development tools, and Java; and applications software comprising enterprise resource planning, customer relationship management, enterprise performance management, supply chain management, business intelligence applications, enterprise portfolio project management, Web commerce, and industry-specific applications software. The company also offers customers with rights to unspecified software product upgrades and maintenance releases; Internet access to technical content; and Internet and telephone access to technical support personnel. In addition, its hardware systems products consist of computer server and hardware-related software, including the Oracle Solaris Operating System; and storage products, such as tape, disk and networking solutions for open systems and mainframe server environments. Its hardware systems support solutions include software updates for the software components. Further, the company offers consulting solutions in business and IT strategy alignment, enterprise architecture planning and design, initial product implementation and integration, and ongoing product enhancements and upgrades; cloud services, including Oracle Cloud Services and Advanced Customer Services; and education solutions comprising instructor-led, media-based, and Internet-based training in the use of its software and hardware products. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Redwood Ci ty, California.

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Deutsche Bank Wins Metals and Mining Analyst Scorecard

Almost every trading day 24/7 Wall St. covers research reports for analyst upgrades, analyst downgrades, and for new analyst coverage. We also cover specific sector calls that stand out above and beyond many of the traditional research calls. After reviewing some of these on a quiet week, it turns out that Deutsche Bank really nailed a research call on the metals and mining stocks early on in July which may have marked the formal bottom in many of these key companies.

By now you have likely noticed that silver and gold and other metals have recovered handily from the recent drop that to some felt like a death plunge. These metals are volatile and may trade in a myriad of directions before settling higher or lower from here. The wild card comes into play with the broader mining and metals stocks, where volatility around metals pricing can be more than extreme compared to the metals themselves.

So what happened in July for Deutsche Bank to get such a positive review this far after the fact? The long and short is the metals and mining research team at Deutsche Bank basically nailed the bottom and investors who listened have profited handily since. Their view was that large cap miners viewed credit markets as still open for multi-billion dollar fundings with a disconnect between equity performance and business fundamentals.

These were the contrarian stocks we covered back on July 1, 2013. We would note that consensus price targets have changed since then as well.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) was shown by Deutsche Bank with a $40 price target and the Thomson/First call estimate was at $38. that 4.5% dividend stood out at the time. At the time its stock was at $27.30 and shares are up 13% now that the stock is up at $30.85. The stock’s 52-week range is $26.37 to $43.65 and the current consensus price target is $36.06 rather than $38 when Deutsche bank nailed it.

Thompson Creek Metals Co. Inc. (NYSE: TC) was at 54% discount to its book value of $8.30 per share at the time, and the stock price of $3.90 is up from $3.03 Deutsche Bank’s team nailed upside of more than 28% here. Its price target was $4 at the time versus a consensus target of $4.50 at the time. The 52-week range here is $2.42 to $4.55, but we would point out that the consensus price target is $3.93.

Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) is the world's largest producer of iron ore and pellets and has extensive China and emerging market exposure as a result. Despite the slowing emerging market story, Vale’s $14.90 share price now versus $13.15 at the time has brought gains of over 13%. Deutsche Bank target price was $22 and the consensus target was closer to $21.40 on July 1. Now the consensus price target is down to $20.16, but that is still much higher then the current price. A yield of almost 5% also stands out with a 52-week range of $12.39 to $21.88.

Coeur Mining Inc. (NYSE: CDE) was trading at $13.30 when we reviewed the Deutsche Bank call, and that was after a gain of almost 10% right before this review on July 1. At the time, Deutsche Bank had an $18 price target and the consensus price was higher at $19. With shares now up at about $16.00, Coeur is up over 20%. Coeur’s 52-week range is $11.29 to $31.97 and the consensus price target is now lower than the current share price down at $15.12.

So how does all this add up for gains? Freeport-McMoRan is still up 13%, Thompson Creek Metals is up 28%, Vale is up over 13%, and Coeur Mining is up over 20%. Those are handy gains considering that the S&P500 is still up by only about 2.4% over the same period.

The effort here is not to tell you to keep chasing the mining stocks. Some may have more room to rise, but we cannot help but notice how the appreciation and the lowering of estimates ahead has taken share prices back up to where some of these are too close to a consensus value. The real point is that we will be paying attention very closely to the next series of upgrades or downgrades in the metals and mining stocks from Deutsche Bank.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Dow Swings Widely As Putin, Obama Spar About Syria

Associated Press

The market quickly took a nosedive after Russia’s president said his nation would assist Syria if it was attacked, and President Barack Obama defended the logic of a limited U.S. strike.

Update: The Dow Jones Industrial average is now higher by 9 points. The Dow was down 94 points to 14,843, after dropping nearly 150 points.  The S&P 500 index was off by 5.5 points to 1649, while the Nasdaq Composite was off nearly 17 points to 3642.  

Equities had traded higher despite a disapointing jobs report, which showed a lower unemployment rate, but more workers dropping out of the market or working part-time jobs.

With stability in the Middle East in question, the price of oil continues to climb higher, with the U.S. benchmark up $1.24, or 1.1%, to $109.61 per barrel.

On the use of force in Syria, where the regime’s alleged use of deadly gas killed 1,400 people, including more than 400 children, according to U.S. and other reports, President Obama just said in live remarks from the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia:

“This is not something we have fabricated. This is not something we are using as an excuse for military action. I was elected to end wars, not start them. But … we have to make hard choices … this is one of those times.”

At the same conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country would “assist” Syria if attacked.

Among stocks, cellular tower operator American Tower (AMT), a real estate investment trust, is up nearly 5% after saying it will buy the parent of tower operator Global Tower Partners for $4.8 billion, according to Flyonthewall.com.  Crown Castle International (CCI) is up 3%. Press release here.

Shares of Walgreen (WAG) are down 1%. The retail chain reported a strong 4.8% rise in August sales Thursday and was the subject of a favorable Barrons.com story (subscription required). Our piece, by colleague Johanna Bennett, posits Walgreen’s “stock price has yet to reflect the expected enormous impact to earnings over the next three years as the company completes its blockbuster acquisition of European pharmacy giant Alliance Boots, and embarks on a joint venture with drug wholesaler AmerisourceBergen (ABC).”

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Will News Corp. Rise Higher?

With shares of News Corp. (NASDAQ:NWSA) trading around $32, is NWSA an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock's Movement

News Corp. is a diversified global media company that operates in six segments: Cable Network Programming; Filmed Entertainment; Television; Direct Broadcast Satellite Television; Publishing; and Other. The company is involved in programming distribution through cable television systems and direct broadcast satellite operators; live-action and animated motion pictures distribution and licensing; operation of broadcast television stations and the broadcasting of network programming and in direct broadcast satellite business through its subsidiary, SKY Italia. News Corp. distributes information and entertainment through just about every medium possible which reinforces a powerful presence. As companies and consumers continue to search for entertainment and information at increasing rates, look for companies like News Corp. to see rising profits.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

News Corp. stock has been a big winner over the last few years. The stock has been digesting gains for a recent run and looks to be forming the right side of a base. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, News Corp. is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

NWSA

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of News Corp. options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

News Corp. Options

26.72%

66%

63%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Flat

Average

August Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let's take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on News Corp.'s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for News Corp. look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

221.05%

140.48%

235.71%

273.83%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

13.54%

5.01%

2.22%

3.87%

Earnings Reaction

4.48%

-2.33%

1.60%

0.21%

News Corp. has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been upbeat about News Corp.'s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has News Corp. stock done relative to its peers, Time Warner (NYSE:TWX), Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), Viacom (NASDAQ:VIA), and sector?

News Corp.

Time Warner

Walt Disney

Viacom

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Sector

Year-to-Date Return

27.71%

20.43%

28.54%

26.31%

24.77%

News Corp. has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

News Corp. is a multimedia giant that is able to reach and affect audiences all over the world. The stock has been a big winner over the last several years and is currently digesting gains for a strong run. Over the last four quarters, investors in the company have been upbeat as earnings and revenue figures have been rising. Relative to its strong peers and sector, News Corp. has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for News Corp. to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Monday, September 9, 2013

Bond Lessons from the Summer Sell-Off

News about possible Fed tapering led to a sell-off in the early summer months, even though no action actually was taken by monetary authorities.

To understand what caused the dramatic response and how it affected some popular bond funds, Morningstar recently shared the views of senior fund analyst Eric Jacobson, who outlined some important lessons for bond investors and advisors to keep in mind.

“Things get priced in early sometimes,” Jacobson said in a video-taped interview with Christine Benz, director of personal finance for the Chicago-based research firm. “So in this case, it's all about fear. Everybody is worried … and that just sent shock waves through the marketplace and triggered all that worry in a sell-off and brought yields up to a place where they hadn't been for quite a while.”

In the intermediate-bond category, the analyst says, one of the best performers during the early summer was the Dodge & Cox Income Fund (DODIX), which lost about 2%. One of the worst, he adds, was the PIMCO Investment Grade Corporate Fund (PIGIX); it dropped by more than 6% during those two months.

Working against the PIMCO fund, Jacobson explains, is its use of a longer benchmark.

“It uses a credit index and doesn't have the mortgages that are in the Barclays U.S. Aggregate, and those mortgages tend to have shorter, lower durations,” he said. “So this fund even at neutral to its benchmark is fairly long in its maturity and its duration.”

In addition, there are sector issues. The PIMCO had part of its portfolio in lower-rated natural gas pipelines, along with an overweighting to metals and mining.

As for the PIMCO Total Return Fund (PTTRX), Jacobson says, one of its problems was that portfolio manager Bill Gross “came into the period a little bit long, and in particular, the fund also had a reasonable allocation to TIPS,” which “sold off quite badly during the interest-rate shock …”

In other words, even when a fund has a minor allocation in a certain holding, that holding can play a significant role on a fund’s overall performance.

Still, Jacobson believes that “very often Gross has been early and still right. I'm not saying that's automatically going to be the case here, but I still think he is one of the best managers in the business.”

Working in favor of the Dodge & Cox fund has been its short duration vs. that of other funds in the category. The fund’s managers have been “very concerned and cautious” about the interest-rate markets, according to the analyst, which has “been a huge help.”

In addition, the portfolio has had slightly more exposure to credit-sensitive bonds, which performed better than the worst-hit bonds, i.e., municipals and long-duration Treasuries, he adds.

Other Funds

The Janus Flexible Bond Fund (JAFIX) also has more of a short-duration flavor relative to its benchmark and some peers. Plus, Jacobson points out, it has a lot of mid-quality corporate bonds, which performed relatively well during the May-June period.

There’s also the MetWest Total Return Bond (MWTRX), another shorter-duration fund in the category that outperformed many of its peers. This fund, the analyst says, has held a lot of mortgages.

Mortgages “tended to hold up a little better during this shock, partly because of the way they're structured and the fact that they have shorter duration. The fund was just very, very light in Treasuries as well,” Jacobson explained.

As for the Scout Core Plus Bond Fund (SCPZX), which has Reams Asset Management as a sub-advisor, “what they got right [is] they had a very short duration of only two years, and so that was a big factor in [why] they were able to really beat up everybody else, if you will, with a modest loss,” the analyst shared.

Long-Term View

With investors turning from traditional bond funds to non-traditional ones, like high yields or bank loans, valuations in the most credit-sensitive sectors are starting to “get a little frothy,” he fears.

“It may take a while to develop,” Jacobson said, “but at some point, if investors continue to flee the most rate-sensitive parts of the market, they will get cheaper and the high-yield, more credit-sensitive stuff will get more expensive.

Plus, though non-traditional bonds may have outperformed core funds in May and June, they “didn't completely protect investors from all losses,” he explains.

Investors may “get some cushion from these non-traditional bond funds, given that a lot of them are relatively light in interest-rate sensitivity and a little heavier in other kinds of risks, sometimes credit risk,” Jacobson said, “but they're not a silver bullet and they're not a panacea, and they're not going automatically protect you.”

Rather than looking for escape routes from their current bond funds, the expert advises investors and advisors to “look again at what your asset allocation is, why it is the way it is, and try to be faithful to what your plan is.”

If it’s a long-term strategy, and the holdings are less risky than equities and that’s what the objective is, then there may not be a need for a course correction.

Some bond categories, Benz points out, can be more equity sensitive than others, making a whole portfolio more responsive to the equity market and economic shifts.

High yields, Jacobson says, are “particularly low in the capital structure, a lot closer to equity than to high-quality bonds, and you do wind up having those higher correlations in your portfolio, which you've got to be careful about.”

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Monday Closing Bell: Markets Plunge on Kerry’s Remarks

Bull and Bear figuresSource: thinkstockAugust 26, 2013: U.S. markets opened slightly higher this morning, held in check by limited data releases in Europe and Asia, and a decidedly downbeat report on U.S. durable goods orders. The markets traded along slightly higher most of the day until late afternoon when Secretary of State John Kerry stated that Syria had indeed used chemical weapons against its own citizens, causing fears that a U.S. military response would further destabilize the region and affect global equities' prices.

European and Asian markets closed mixed today, while Latin American markets closed lower.

On Tuesday's calendar, San Francisco Fed President John Williams is giving a speech and we are scheduled for the following data releases and events:

9:00 a.m. – S&P Case-Shiller house price index 10:00 a.m. – Conference Board consumer confidence index 10:00 a.m. – Richmond Fed manufacturing index 11:30 a.m. – 4-week Treasury bill auction 1:00 p.m. – 2-year note auction

We also broke out the top Wall Street calls with analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Here are the closing bell levels for Monday:

S&P500 1,656.79 (-6.70 -0.40%) DJIA 14,946.85 (-63.66; -0.42%) NASDAQ 3,657.57 (-0.22; -0.01%) 10YR TNOTE 2.789% (-0.22%) Gold $1,370.80 (+6.50; +0.47%) Euro/Dollar: 1.3371 (-0.0015; -0.12%)

Big earnings movers: Chinese internet firm Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NYSE: QIHU) is up 8% at $78.99 on strong earnings and a buoyant outlook. A small biotech firm, Spherix Inc. (NASDAQ: SPEX) jumped 26.7% to more than $14 on earnings. On Tuesday we are scheduled to get earnings from LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) before markets open. After Tuesday's close we'll hear from Workday Inc. (NYSE: WDAY) and TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO), among others.

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Stocks on the move: Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) is up 5.6% at $123.52 after accepting a $10.4 billion buyout offer from Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN). Chinese wealth management firm Noah Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NOAH) is down 16.6% at $13.76 following an analyst downgrade on worries about the company's recurring revenues.

In all, 91 stocks put up new 52-week highs today, while just 14 stocks posted new lows.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Batista’s OGX Soars as Rout Boosts Ibovespa Weighting: Rio Mover

Eike Batista's OGX Petroleo & Gas Participacoes SA rose the most in five years, rebounding from a record slump, as a surge in trading volume pushed up the crude explorer's weighting in Brazil's main equity index.

OGX soared 30 percent to 39 centavos at 12:11 p.m. in Sao Paulo, heading for the biggest gain since its June 2008 initial public offering. The stock regained about half the ground lost in the final half hour of trading on Aug. 30 when it tumbled to a record low 30 centavos from 50 centavos.

Batista's flagship company is the worst-performing major stock in Brazil in the past six months, losing 88 percent of its value, after a series of missed production targets, exacerbated last month by the former billionaire reducing his stake and a dispute with Petroliam Nasional Bhd. While the selloff saw OGX removed from the MSCI Brazil Index today, the resulting increase in trading volume is boosting the stock's weighting in the benchmark Ibovespa.

"Shares slumped on Friday as foreign investors massively sold because OGX would not be part of the MSCI Brazil anymore," Sandro Fernandes, a trader at Geraldo Correa, said by phone from Belo Horizonte, Brazil. "Today shares are rallying because some funds needed to buy more stock as OGX's weighting on the Brazilian benchmark increased."

Ibovespa Weighting

OGX has the third-highest weight in the Ibovespa at 5.21 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 0.92 percent on Aug. 30, the data show. BM&FBovespa SA (BVMF3) is considering excluding stocks trading for less than 1 real, or penny stocks, from the Ibovespa, which is otherwise weighted just by trading volume, according to a statement on the exchange operator's website.

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The oil company's press office in Rio de Janeiro declined to comment on the Aug. 30 share decline in an e-mailed response to questions.

OGX said last week Petronas has no right to delay buying stakes in two Brazilian blocks for $850 million after the Malaysian producer said the deal hinges on OGX undertaking a debt restructuring. OGX will run out of cash this quarter if it doesn't receive the first installment of the Petronas payment, Deutsche Bank said in Aug. 27.

The oil producer said last month that it hired Blackstone Group LP to advise on a study of its capital structure as Batista raises cash and sells company stakes and assets.

Sunday, September 1, 2013

5 steps to be kept in mind while selecting stock broker

Reputation:

First and foremost, as an investor, you must ensure that the broker has the right credentials. Browse through the SEBI/ stock exchange websites, scan for pending investor complaints against a broker and also seek a second opinion from those who know/ have dealt with the broker.

Ensure complete clarity on the segments and facilities signed up for, contract notes/ trade confirmations, unused funds in the account, particularly the Power of Attorney and above all, instant facility to access all the above mentioned information. It is always good to deal with a transparent and experienced broker with strong financial standing, shareholding and reputation.

Quality of advice:

Quality of advice impacts investment success. Make sure that your broker advises you in line with your goals and risk appetite and possesses adequate manpower, customer support and infrastructure in order to effectively disseminate vital, market related information. Your Relationship Manager should be appropriately qualified and certified (preferably NCFM, NISM, AMFI, etc.) to provide undistorted information during volatile market conditions. Furthermore, ethics determine the ultimate beneficiary. Confirm that your broker�s advice on particular investments will benefit you and not them (in terms of commission received on certain transaction).

Range of Products

If you are a disciplined investor or aspire to be one, look for a broker who can provide you access to investment products across asset classes in a seamless manner. Today, many brokers offer access to multiple investment options spanning across equities, futures, options, ETFs, Mutual Funds, and Insurance etc. in a single login.

In addition, opt for a broker offering multiple trading channels like, Internet, Branch, Call Centre, Mobile, etc. Also, check whether the broker has "Post Market Hour Order Placing Facilities". A big plus would be an account with a broker having user-friendly customer care facilities.

Technology and easy accessibility:

Technological advancement has pervaded even the trading arena. Hence, maintain an account with the broker who believes in bringing the best of technology at your fingertips. Explore their website and check out ease of usage.

If you are planning to have an online trading facility, check the availability of trading site during busy hours, streaming quotes, reliable order execution mechanism, graph studies, online funds transfer facility, offline support etc. Easy accessibility is equally imperative- choose a broker with strong credentials very near to your locality.

Cost Efficiency:

Last but not the least, investments products and advisory services should be available at competitive rates. However, remember, never compromise on quality for cost. Always scout for a full service broker and choose the one who provides clear and easy to understand brokerage structure. Be vigilant and monitor your accounts regularly.

In case you happen to notice some charges debited to your account with out-of-context or prior uninformed narration, immediately get it clarified with the broker. Investors have every right to know about their accounts and charges levied at any given point in time.

Invest wisely and with awareness for a satisfied and rewarding investment experience.