Friday, August 3, 2018

A long-time bull debunks 'peak earnings' fears, sees strong year-end rally

Long-time bull Art Hogan sees holes in the "peak earnings" argument.

According to the B. Riley FBR chief market strategist, earnings growth on a year-over-year basis will crest this year �� but that doesn't mean it's as good as it gets for investors. He believes the economic picture supports the case for a fresh round of strong numbers that will drive stocks to record highs.

"Earnings growth is going to continue. It's just difficult comps versus 2018," Hogan said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

As of Wednesday's market close, Thomson Reuters reports 81 percent of second-quarter earnings reports have come in above estimates. Since 1994, an average of 64 percent of companies beat estimates.

The long-time bull acknowledges the latest earnings have vastly benefited from the 2017 one-time corporate tax cut. But that's no reason to second-guess the bull market, he said.

"Obviously, we've had great earnings in 2018 thus far," Hogan said.

His year-end S&P 500 target is 3,000, up more than 6 percent from current levels or 4 percent from its all-time high hit on Jan. 26.

Hogan is citing more than just strong earnings as his a chief catalyst. He believes the Trump administration will use midterm elections as a reason to end the trade war, in turn easing uncertainty on Wall Street.

"Right now, we're just pricing in bad news, and that continues to escalate with China. We're starting to see some cracks and some olive branches being brought forward," Hogan said. "That will start to ease some of the concerns corporate America has about trade and tariffs."

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Thursday, August 2, 2018

3 Growth Stocks for the Long Term

Successful investors generally overweight growth stocks, and it's easy to see why: Growth stocks are shares of companies that are growing their sales and profits faster than the industry and the market at large, which eventually leads to solid capital appreciation and rich rewards for shareholders. More often than not, the longer you hold growth stocks, the higher your returns.

So we asked three Motley Fool contributors to recommend growth stocks for the long term. They offered some solid ideas from diverse industries: A.O. Smith (NYSE:AOS), Trex Company (NYSE:TREX), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).

This surprising star performer should continue to outshine

Neha Chamaria (A.O. Smith): In a world where tech stocks rule the high-flyer list, would you believe that a water-heater manufacturer's shares have risen a whopping 800% in just the past ten years? A.O. Smith has been the dark horse of the industrials sector, and it's likely to continue growing rapidly. The reason: a massive addressable market in some of the fastest-growing economies.

After cornering the water-heater market in North America, A.O. Smith has now set its eyes on countries like China and India, where rising disposable incomes and expanding middle and upper classes are driving demand for consumer durables like purifiers and heaters. A.O. Smith's sales from China topped $1 billion last year, thanks to its more than 9,000 retail counters, and e-commerce that brought in almost a quarter of those sales.

Stacks of coins with plant shoots growing on top

Buying and holding growth stocks for the long term can prove richly rewarding. Image source: Getty Images.

These numbers show how aggressively A.O. Smith is growing. In its most recent quarter, the company handily beat estimates and upgraded its adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) outlook for fiscal 2018, guiding for a solid 20% growth at the midpoint from last year. Between 2010 and 2017, A.O. Smith grew its adjusted EPS at a compound annual rate of 26%.

A.O. recently hit another milestone -- that of becoming a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividends for 25 consecutive years. Yet the company still plows back a major chunk of its profits into the business for growth, which can also be credited for almost all of the stock's gains over the years. That makes A.O. Smith a growth stock in the traditional sense of the word, and an excellent choice for the long haul.

The undisputed leader in a fast-growing niche

Jason Hall (Trex): Recycled-decking manufacturer Trex Company has made recent investors a lot of money:

TREX Chart

TREX data by YCharts.

It's a rare investment that delivers over fourfold gains in a five-year period. Yet even with these remarkable returns Trex is worth buying right now, because its future remains very bright.

The company has a dominant position in the wood-alternative decking industry, commanding over 40% of North American sales, but regular wood still makes up more than 85% of the total volume of decking lumber sold each year. That goes to show just how big the market opportunity really is for Trex, despite so many years of huge growth already.

Furthermore, I expect the burgeoning population of millennial homebuyers could be a boon for the company, further accelerating future growth. Trex's value as a more environmentally friendly choice than virgin wood decking resonates with younger buyers. Add the significant reduction in maintenance and multiple decades of use before needing to replace it, and Trex is likely to appeal to an even higher portion of new homeowners in the years to come.

With a huge lead over its competitors, a solid long-term opportunity for growth, and a great management team in place, Trex makes the cut as a top growth stock to buy now and hold for the long term.

A large, growing software company

Ashraf Eassa (Microsoft): Software giant Microsoft, which you probably know as the maker of the popular Windows operating system and the ubiquitous Office productivity suite, is a large and extremely profitable company that pays a respectable dividend (as of this writing, Microsoft shares yield 1.58%). What might be more interesting, though, is that Microsoft has also delivered a substantial amount of revenue growth during its life as a publicly traded company:

MSFT Revenue (TTM) Chart

MSFT Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.

That growth continued during its most recent fiscal year, with the software giant raking in $110.4 billion in revenue -- a figure that was up 14% from the company's prior fiscal year. It also churned out $35.1 billion in operating income -- a 21% year-over-year boost. Not only is Microsoft showing that it can deliver respectable revenue growth, but it's translating that revenue growth into fat profits for its shareholders, something that it's historically proven it can do well:

MSFT Operating Income (TTM) Chart

MSFT Operating Income (TTM) data by YCharts.

Digging deeper into the company's fiscal-year 2018 results, we see that each of its three major reporting segments delivered double-digit year-over-year growth rates:

Metric Productivity and Business Processes Intelligent Cloud More Personal Computing
Total revenue $9.668 billion $9.606 billion $10.811 billion
Year-over-year revenue growth 13% 23% 17%

Data source: Microsoft fiscal fourth-quarter 2018 earnings release.

The fact that Microsoft's growth comes from a diverse set of businesses, rather than from a single superstrong business while the others languish, seems like a good thing.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Microsoft to enjoy 11.2% revenue growth during its fiscal year 2019 (the year that just started), then add another 10.3% revenue growth on top of that during its fiscal year 2020. The software giant's EPS is also expected to grow by 10.3% and 14.7%, respectively, during those years.

Microsoft has a solid track record of delivering both revenue and profit growth over a long period of time. So if you're looking for a growth stock that you can count on to be here today, tomorrow, and likely ten years from now, the software giant is worth a look.

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Tesla Earnings: 3 Questions for Elon Musk

There are several important narratives playing out at Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Though Model 3 production has skyrocketed, the company's net loss and negative free cash flow have significantly worsened. Sure, management expects Tesla's financial situation to improve as Model 3 deliveries rise, but there are no guarantees.

Unsurprisingly, big questions loom. Investors are about to get some key answers in a vital quarterly update. The electric-car and sustainable-energy company just put a date to its second-quarter update: August 1.�

A woman unlocks her Model 3 with a Tesla app on her smartphone

Model 3. Image source: Tesla.

Ahead of Tesla's second-quarter update, here are three key questions investors are likely hoping Tesla CEO Elon Musk will answer:

1. How's Model 3 production faring?

Investors don't have to wait until Tesla's second-quarter update to hear how Model 3 production and deliveries went during the period. The company already released those figures. Tesla produced a record 53,339 vehicles�-- up 55% sequentially. Of those vehicles, 28,578 were Model 3. But since Tesla's Model 3 output ramped up exponentially throughout the quarter, most of the vehicles were produced toward the end of the period, leaving 11,166 Model 3 units in transit to customers going into Q3.

Importantly, Tesla achieved its target for producing 5,000 Model 3 units per week by the end of the quarter -- but it achieved it during the last seven days of the quarter, leaving investors guessing how sustainable this new production level is. Alleviating at least some concerns, Tesla did note it was able to achieve this Model 3 production rate while keeping its Model S and X production at normal levels.

The big question, therefore, is how Model 3 production has proceeded since Tesla achieved its target Model 3 production rate. Has Tesla been able to sustain this higher level of output? In addition, does Tesla still expect to achieve a production rate of 6,000 Model 3 units per week by late August?

2. What's next for Autopilot?

After Tesla's driver-assist system was first released in October 2015,�the company aggressively improved the technology through regular over-the-air software updates that brought major new updates, including driver-assisted steering, lane changes, the ability to "summon" the vehicle in and out of tight spaces, and�improved automatic emergency braking.

But Tesla's Autopilot program seems to be falling behind schedule recently. For instance, Musk initially promised to demonstrate one of its vehicles driving across the country by late 2017,�thus proving Autopilot's yet-to-be-released "full self-driving capability" add-on is the real deal. But Autopilot seems to be taking a back seat as Tesla focuses on accelerating Model 3 production.

Now that Model 3 production has jumped, will the automaker dedicate more effort to Autopilot?

Model 3 interior and 15-inch touch display

Model 3. Image source: Tesla.

3. Will Tesla need to raise capital this year after all?

Tesla's cash situation doesn't look good. The company ended its first quarter with $2.7 billion of cash, yet management plans to spend about $2.3 billion more in Q2, Q3, and Q4 combined despite having negative free cash flow of $1.05 billion in Q1. Making matters worse, Tesla said it didn't expect to become cash flow positive until Q3 -- so this means Q2 will likely feature negative free cash flow as well.

Management has previously predicted it wouldn't need to raise capital this year since it expected higher Model 3 deliveries to help the company become both profitable and cash flow positive in the second half of the year. Is management sticking to this plan? Or is the capital-intensive auto business more costly than management anticipated?