Washington Post columnist Neil Irwin stopped by to discuss his book,�The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire.�It's a great read on the history of central banks, including how they responded to the financial crisis and the challenges they face in the future.
There are many different approaches the Fed could take when it comes time to "turn the dial" on an exit strategy. In this video segment, Neil explains some of the factors they'll have to balance, with timing being perhaps the most critical. A full transcript follows the video.
Morgan Housel: To the extent that the housing bubble last decade is what got us here, to the extent that that was caused by interest rates being held too low back then, it seems like the history of getting it wrong -- having the tools to do it right, but not the will to do it right -- the history points to the idea that they will not get it right at the right time. What does that mean for us, over the next decade?
Best Heal Care Companies To Buy For 2014: M Health Ltd(MHL.AX)
Orca Energy Limited engages in the exploration and evaluation of minerals, oil and gas, and uranium opportunities in Australia and Kyrgyzstan. The company holds a 22.5% interest in the East Kokmoinok Uranium license in the Kyrgyz Republic; and 100% interest in three petroleum licenses covering an area of approximately 6,000 square kilometers located in the Kyrgyz Republic. It also holds licenses in the onshore Cooper Basin, South Australia. The company was formerly known as Monitor Energy Limited and changed its name Orca Energy Limited in August 2011. Orca Energy Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Best Heal Care Companies To Buy For 2014: Omnicom Group Inc.(OMC)
Omnicom Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides advertising, marketing, and corporate communications services. It offers services in traditional media advertising, customer relationship management, public relations, and specialty communications groups. The company?s services include advertising, brand consultancy, corporate social responsibility consulting, crisis communications, custom publishing, database management, digital and interactive marketing, direct marketing, directory advertising, entertainment marketing, environmental design, experiential marketing, field marketing, financial/corporate business-to-business advertising, graphic arts, healthcare communications, and instore design. Omnicom Group also offers investor relations, marketing research, media planning and buying, mobile marketing services, multi-cultural marketing, non-profit marketing, organizational communications, package design, product placement, promotional marketing, public affairs, public relations, recruitment communications, reputation consulting, retail marketing, search engine marketing, and sports and event marketing services. It offers its services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company was founded in 1944 and is based in New York, New York.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Martin]
Omnicom Group provides advertising, marketing and corporate communications services. OMC recently traded at $37.1 and has a 2.7% dividend yield. OMC gained 3.7% during the past 12 months. The stock has a market cap of $10.4 billion, P/E ratio of 12.2 and forward P/E ratio of 10. The stock has total debt/equity ratio of 0.9 and Beta of 1.16.
- [By Geoff Gannon] ��of course ��Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B). There is nothing wrong with owning huge stocks. There is something wrong with spending a lot of time picking them.
The best way to own huge stocks is to own an index fund. You only need one. So go with the S&P 500. Mutual funds are mostly a waste of time. There are a couple ��like Fairholme ��that really do make big, concentrated bets that don�� mirror index funds. And there are some other funds ��like Hussman Strategic Growth and Third Avenue Focused Credit ��that are structured to do something other than chase an index. I�� not sure those funds will perform well. I am sure they will give you diversity. They��l actually add something to your account ��beyond most mutual funds.
The biggest problem for most investors is bad timing. They are greedy when others are greedy and fearful when others are fearful. That�� a problem no matter what you invest in. It�� a problem in an index fund. It�� a problem in a mutual fund. And it�� a problem in a stock. The biggest challenge for most investors is getting over that. If you can be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy ��you can make money in index funds, mutual funds and individual stocks. If not, you will always underperform the assets you invest in.
Can you do any better than that though? Can you actually improve on an index�� performance through stock picking?
Sure. And it�� not that hard. There are many strategies that outperform indexes. I��e mentioned a few before. I will once again mention an insanely simple one that will tend to work over time.
Rule #1: Never pay more than 8 times EBITDA for a stock.
Rule #2: Never buy a stock that has lost money in any of the last 10 years.
Rule #3: Never sell a stock within the first year of buying it.
Rule #4: Hold 10 stocks.
Rule #5: Hold the stocks with the longest history of consistent profits.
This is a very simple screen. It�� not ! optimal. Paying less than 6 times EBITDA would do better than paying less than 8 times EBITDA. But that would be more of an extreme value screen. Using 8 times EBITDA is just a common sense requirement never to pay an unreasonable price for a stock�� current earnings ��and never to be fooled by leverage.
Today, following those five rules would put you in these stocks:
Superior Uniform (SGC)
Friedman (FRD)
Stepan (SCL)
Frisch�� (FRS)
Eastman (EML)
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
Walgreen (WAG)
Weis Markets (WMK)
H&R Block (HRB)
John Wiley (JW.A)
Notice that 4 of those 10 stocks have a market cap under $100 million. This is shocking. I�� ranking the companies by years of positive earnings (special items ��which explain H&R Block�� losses ��are excluded). If a company earns money for several decades ��this group has tended to be profitable for over 30 years ��and it retains that money, it will end up with a big market cap.
Some of these companies have ended up with big market caps. Walgreen has a market cap over $30 billion. Archer Daniels is around $17 billion. Those are huge companies.
What is the advantage of being a huge company? There are some. For one, we know the business is ��or was ��growable. A lot of small companies stay small because their circle of competence is small. Paradise (PARF) is an over the counter stock. It has a market cap of $10 million. And it dominates the candied fruit market in the U.S. Why isn�� the company bigger?
The candied fruit market is tiny. Even with 100% market share ��no company in the industry could have a market cap anywhere near $100 million.
We��l use that $100 million market cap level as a cut-off. A lot of investors do. A lot of investors have never owned a stock with a market cap less than $100 million.
How much of the market are they missing? In dollar terms ��almost nothing. In company terms ��probably about 3! 5% of Ame! rica�� public companies.
When you limit yourself to stocks with a market cap over $100 million ��you are limiting yourself to the two-thirds of American companies that are best known and best followed by analysts, investors, the media, etc. You are ignoring the one-third of American companies that are obscure. That is the group I want to focus on today.
Is it just a question of market cap? Are the smallest companies in terms of market cap always the most obscure companies?
And what if you have a lot of money to invest? What if you can�� invest in stocks with a market cap of $10 million or $30 million? Does that mean you can�� buy obscure stocks?
Not necessarily. There are some big obscure stocks. The example everyone who knows obscure stocks will give you is Seaboard (SEB). This is a company with a $3 billion market cap. But it�� also a company that has been run the way obscure companies are run.
It is family controlled. It doesn�� split the stock ��shares go for $2,529. Most of the information you can turn up about the company is in the form of SEC reports, legal documents, and unauthorized (often unfriendly) news stories. Yahoo tells me no analysts cover Seaboard. But there were reports written on the company. So that�� a bit of an overstatement of the stock�� obscurity. Still, Seaboard fits the mold of a big, obscure stock.
What makes a stock obscure?
Think about when you hear about a stock. Probably it�� from some sort of news involving analysts, conference calls, press releases, acquisitions, and share issuances.
Imagine companies that aren�� followed by analysts, don�� hold conference calls, don�� put out press releases, don�� do (investment banker sourced) acquisitions, and don�� issue stock or bonds. Those companies will tend to stay out of the public eye.
There is one other ��very powerful but hard to find ��reason why a public company stays unknown. The shares were spread out weirdly. There are c! ompanies ! where shareholders got stock because of a bankruptcy, antitrust issue, tax issue, spin-off, etc. The further this event happened from Wall Street�� eyes ��the more obscure the stock will be.
Imagine a situation where trade creditors end up with common stock. That�� very different from a situation where distressed debt investors end up with common stock. From Warren Buffett�� career we have the example of the Blue Chip Stamps consent decree. That put Blue Chip stamps in the hands of grocery stores. Grocery stores are not exactly institutional investors. Buffett took advantage of this. He didn�� just buy Blue Chip shares. He even bought shares of grocers figuring he could convince them to swap Blue Chip shares for their own shares.
Look for shareholders who aren�� institutions. This is something you can screen for.
That brings me to the best way to find obscure stocks. Stocks you can�� screen for are harder to find than stocks you can screen for. Measures like EPS and book value are very easy to screen for. Excessive depreciation, understated asset values, tax assets, etc., are hard to screen for.
Look for companies that use short useful lives in their depreciation calculations, LIFO inventory accounting, carry old real estate, don�� have to pay taxes for a while, and use the equity method of accounting. Public companies that own parts of other public companies are always worth investigating.
This is the real work you want to do. But it�� too much to ask of most investors who have never invested in obscure stocks before. So, let�� talk about starting points. You want to end up thinking about all the things I��e mentioned ��family control, unusual accounting, ��idden��assets, etc. But where do you start? Where can you come up with lists of obscure stocks?
There is a new website called Unlistedstocks.net. It looks like it will be an excellent starting place. That site was started by the author of Oddball Stocks. I know Oddball Stocks is ! already a! great place to find obscure stocks. Read all of that blog�� archives. And keep a file with the names of obscure stocks covered on the blog. You can also read blogs like OTC Adventures and Whopper Investments in the U.S. And the Share Sleuth blog in the UK.
The other way to find obscure stocks is to screen for them. But you��l need a good screener. You should use StockScreen123. And you should create your own screens. Anything else is unlikely to do the job as well. So don�� skimp on your search for obscure stocks by trying to find a free screener. It�� not worth it.
The same goes for UnlistedStocks.net. It costs $300 a year. Or $75 if you contribute obscure stocks to the database. If you do the math on how much obscure stocks can earn you beyond an index fund ��you��l find that it�� probably worth the investment in that $300-a-year subscription.
Even a cheapskate like Warren Buffett has subscribed to some very expensive trade magazines since his partnership days. When you find an information source that suits your process ��it�� worth paying for it. Don�� be stupid about trying to save money. If it sacrifices return on investment ��it�� not worth it.
So what kind of screens should you run at StockScreen123? A simple low float search works well in turning up obscure companies. As a rule, float in share terms works best. Float in terms of market capitalization is trickier. And float in percentage terms can be low at some large, well known companies.
Why does float in terms of shares matter?
Share splits and share issuance are both signs of management that cares what the public thinks about the company.
You will find many fine companies where fewer than 5 million shares are in the hands of outsiders. A simple screen for such companies ��again putting the companies with the longest history of consistent profitability on top ��looks like this:
Weyco (WEYS)
Bowl America (BWL.A)
The Washington Post (WPO)
New Ul! m (NULM)
Atrion (ATRI)
Arden (ARDNA)
RGC Resources (RGCO)
National Presto (NPK)
National Technical Systems (NTSC)
Micropac (MPAD)
Utah Medical Products (UTMD)
There are some interesting stories on that list. Buffett watchers know The Washington Post. Ben Graham fans know National Presto. Anyone who follows net-nets is familiar with Micropac. If you��e a high ROC investor you��e probably come across Utah Medical Products (operating margins are over 30%). Atrion has one of the most interesting histories of value creation starting in the 1990s. And Arden is a grocer that earns a 15% return on equity in a bad year.
And that�� not a finessed list. All I did is eliminate all stocks with more than 5 million shares in the hands of outsiders. Then I sorted by years of consecutive profitability.
As you can see, it�� very easy to turn up stocks most people have never heard of.
You�� be much better off fishing in the pond of stocks with a float of 5 million shares or less than in a pond like the S&P 500.
One of the benefits of studying obscure stocks is that it teaches you a lot about business. Most investors can�� imagine a grocer that earns 15% to 30% on equity (while using less leverage than the big boys).
If you can�� understand a grocer with $400 million in sales ��how can you understand a grocer with $90 billion sales? Kroger (KR) is 225 bigger than Arden. Its competitive position is more tenuous. And its financial position is a lot more tenuous than Arden��.
It�� a lot harder to value the equity of Kroger than the equity of Arden. And yet more investors are trying to value Kroger�� stock price than Arden��. That�� a problem for the folks trying to value Kroger. And it�� an opportunity for the investors focused on Arden.
The other problem with ignoring obscure stocks is best illustrated with this quote from an analyst report:
��he Kroger Company is the only traditi! onal groc! ery store operator to consistently generate returns above its cost of capital.��br>
There are several grocers that earn their cost of capital. They just aren�� in the S&P 500.
Line up the return on capital lines ��for the last 10 years ��for Arden, Village (VLGEA), Weis, Harris Teet
5 Best Low Price Stocks To Buy For 2014: FSA Group Ltd (FSA.AX)
FSA Group Limited provides debt solutions and direct lending services to individuals and businesses in Australia. The company operates in three segments: Services, Home Loans, and Small Business. The Services segment offers debt agreement proposal preparation and administration, trustee, and other related services. The Home Loans segment provides mortgage finance, home loan broking, and mortgage management services. The Small Business segment offers corporate consultancy services, as well as bridging finance, factoring finance, and other related services. FSA Group Limited is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Best Heal Care Companies To Buy For 2014: United Parcel Service Inc.(UPS)
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery company, provides transportation, logistics, and financial services in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain & Freight. The U.S. Domestic Package segment engages in the time-definite delivery of letters, documents, and packages in the United States. The International Package segment offers air and ground delivery of small packages and letters to approximately 220 countries and territories, including shipments outside the United States, as well as shipments with either origin or distribution outside the United States; export services; and domestic services move shipments within a country?s borders. The Supply Chain & Freight segment provides forwarding and logistics services, such as supply chain design and management, freight distribution, customs brokerage, mail, and consulting services in approximately 195 countries and territorie s; and less-than-truckload and truckload services to customers in North America. In addition, the company offers various technology solutions for automated shipping, visibility, and billing; information technology systems and distribution facilities to various industries comprising healthcare, technology, and consumer/retail; and a portfolio of financial services that provides customers with short-term working capital, government guaranteed lending, global trade financing, credit cards, and export financing. It operates a fleet of approximately 99,800 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles; an air fleet of 527 aircraft; and 33,800 containers used to transport cargo in its aircraft. The company was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Mark]
UPS is a package delivery company. Cramer holds 600 shares of UPS stocks. UPS has a dividend yield of 3.20% and returned -6.68% since the beginning of this year. It has a market cap of $63.89B and a P/E ratio of 16.08. Jason Capello invested $253 million in UPS.
Best Heal Care Companies To Buy For 2014: Brookfield Residential Properties Inc (BRP)
Brookfield Residential Properties Inc. (Brookfield Residential) is a land developer and homebuilder.The Company entitles and develops land and builds homes for its own communities, as well as sells lots to third-party builders. It operates in three segments in North America: Canada, California and Central and Eastern U.S. Each of the Company�� segments specializes in lot entitlement and development and the construction of single-family and multi-family homes. As of December 31, 2011, Brookfield Residential controlled 108,197 lots. The Company became a public company on March 31, 2011, by combining the former business of Brookfield Homes Corporation (Brookfield Homes) and the residential land and housing division (BPO Residential) of Brookfield Office Properties Inc. into a single residential land and housing company, achieved through a merger and series of related transactions completed on March 31, 2011. Advisors' Opinion:- [By James K. Glassman]
A developer and homebuilder in the U.S. and Canada, Brookfield Residential Properties (symbol: BRP) is well positioned: More than 80% of its Canadian assets are in oil-sands-rich Alberta. The Calgary company has owned most of its land for years but carries the value of that property on its books at cost. If the shares traded in line with Brookfield's peers, they would triple.
Best Heal Care Companies To Buy For 2014: (ENTI)
Encounter Technologies, Inc. operates as an online video distribution and technology company that launches proprietary syndication platforms and offers a range of video technology and distribution services to other companies. The company develops and programs solutions for the online streaming, distribution, and networking, as well as for the social network and distribution platforms. It offers end-to-end technology and online marketing services, including design, build, hosting, and online marketing support. The company primarily operates GlobalAdOn.com, a patented technology for the yellow pages publishing industry. Its sales and management platform facilitates the sales and video production process for Internet yellow page publishers and their sales forces, as well as integrates and facilitates various processes, such as video shoot, sales rep, and publisher. The company was formerly known as Encounter.com, Inc. and changed its name to Encounter Technologies, Inc. in De cember 2009. Encounter Technologies, Inc. is based in Fort Myers, Florida.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Stock Chaser]
Encounter Technologies, Inc. (PINK:ENTI) is up 75% at $0.0007 with an intraday high of $0.0008. Encounter Technologies announced today that they are in strategic discussions with Pegasus Tel, Inc.
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