Monday, December 9, 2013

What to do if stocks’ good year terrifies you

Hot Penny Companies To Buy For 2014

For some people, good fortune is a sign of impending doom. Find a $5 bill on the sidewalk? It must mean that your car will have a flat. Get an unexpected insurance payment? Oooh, the furnace is going to die. Get $1,000 from dear departed Uncle Fred? You're going to need a root canal, and the dentist will have to go in through your spine to get back there.

For those people, the Standard & Poor's 500's 25% gain this year must signal catastrophe in 2014. While this is in no way true — past performance, after all, is no indication of future returns — you might be wondering what you should do.
And if you've created a diversified portfolio based on your age, needs and risk tolerance, the answer is simple: nothing. But if you suspect that your portfolio is a bit out of whack because of the stock market's run, you can make a few changes that could dampen a bear market, but won't eliminate the possibility of future good fortune.
Looking at history, great years are typically followed by pretty good years in the stock market, not soul-crushing, bone-grinding bear markets. According to Standard and Poor's, years that have seen a gain of 20% or more see a gain the following year 78% of the time. And that gain is typically about 10% — not as good as the previous year, but better than a poke in the eye with a burnt stick.
Years with 30% gains are rarer — just six since 1945

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